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Time while love changed into simply an clean recreation to play consistent with The Beatles Word Craze
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Is this how you think about counterfactuals and Theories of Change?

Just as with Theories of Change in the world of M&E, our task is first to identify the variables in the story (the orange boxes in the picture above). Each variable also lists ((in double brackets)) the possible values – in most cases just no and yes, but in one case the amount (from 0-100%) by which the narrator feels he is the “man he used to be”.

The ticks mark the Factual state of affairs, and the crosses mark the Counterfactual – what would have happened without the fatal “something wrong”.

Then we have to draw arrows between the variables to show what contributes to what. The diagram above was drawn with my free web app for Theories of Change, called .. There are more details on how I drew this diagram , where you can also clone the diagram, play around with it and make your own version.

On the left is the big orange variable which is identified as possibly having caused the whole story, marked with a black arrow. You can think of this as a switch which changes the whole mechanism. Click it into the Factual state (he says something wrong) and all the variables

Click it into the Counterfactual state (he manages not to say something wrong) and all the variables take the values marked with the Counterfactual cross. Note that in some discussions of Theories of Changes, the assumption is made that all variables are binary

Mr. McCartney isn’t sure why “she had to go”, after all “she wouldn’t say”, so we make a note of this.

Let’s look at the variable “the amount to which I am the man I used to be”, which would have been 100% in the counterfactual situation but is now something less than 50% (I am not even half the man I used to be).

Note also that how things were yesterday, the baseline, is not necessarily the same as how things would have been today (the counterfactual), so we can’t record baseline information using Counterfactual crosses. Instead we note the baseline with the green comments.

Would love to read your comments whendidrelease on this. A final challenge: I didn’t do much with the plaintive cry “I believe in yesterday”. Time when love was an easy game to play